Casino Bonus Codes Blog

We have posted our MMA fight picks for UFC 89 Bisping vs Leben.

I make my MMA fight pick predictions tonight @ mmabettingpicks.com for tonight’s EliteXC fight card that includes the anticipated rematch between Scott “Hands of Steel” Smith and “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler.

I’m doing my MMA UFC and Affliction fight picks @ mmabettingpicks.com.

This weekend has two big fight cards. One from the UFC which is free and on Spike TV July 19th. While an up and coming promotion from Affliction/Donald Trump is on PPV also July 19th. Both promotions have a few great fights and some are easy bets. Find out who I have picked to win at MMA Betting Picks.

There are a couple of online books that are heavily promoting the Euro 2008 football tourney.

Some of our favorites are Intertops, BetFred, Bet365, and Ladbrokes. They are all offering first bet bonuses.

Intertops is offering a $20 free bet.

BetFred is offering a free 100GBP bet for the Euro 2008.

Bet365 always has some new bonus going on.

Bet365 has a nice list of odds on all the games. I like Holland over Romania.

Ladbrokes one of the most popular Books in Europe is giving new players 10GBP free.

Bodog as usual is competitive as well.

Keeping your bankroll safe while growing it as quickly as possible - a common problem for sports bettors. Determining the proper bet size to maximize returns while minimizing the risk of ruin is crucial. There is a relatively simple way to utilize a complex mathematical formula to arrive at those bet sizes.

The Kelly Criterion is a formula that describes a way to maximize the long-term growth of repeated bets that have positive expected value, while limiting risk of ruin.

Risk of Ruin

Risk of ruin is quantifiable, and measures the probability that a bettor with an edge (positive expectation) will go broke by making bets of various sizes with certain odds. Risk of ruin is always a number between 0 and 1, and is often expressed as a percentage. A small risk of ruin is the safe approach. Risk of ruin can be reduced by 1) increasing bankroll, 2) decreasing bet sizes, or 3) improving odds (becoming better at handicapping or shopping for better lines, for example).

Technically, the Kelly Criterion has a zero risk of ruin, since the formula never allows a gambler to risk 100% of their bankroll on any given bet. In the real world, however, there is no way to have the infinitely large bankroll or the infinitely small bets that guarantee a true zero risk. Realistically, a bettor on a bad streak would reach a point where the criterion-suggested bet is below the book’s minimum bet.

The Formula

The purpose of this article is not to dissect the mathematics behind the Kelly Criterion. Suffice it to say that long-term growth is maximized by finding the fraction of the bankroll that reaches the maximum of the logarithm of the results. Readers interested in the mathematical abstracts of the formula can find plenty of information about J.L. Kelly Jr.’s work.
For most gamblers, understanding a simple method of applying a sound mathematical basis to bet sizing without complicated calculations is in order.

The Kelly Criterion in Practical Usage

The simplest expression of the Kelly formula is:

f= bp -q

b

where f = the fraction of the bankroll to risk

b = the odds “to 1” offered

p = the probability of a win

q = the probability of a loss

Let’s take a simple example of a football sides bettor with a $10,000 bankroll who picks 53% winners (remember that you must win approximately 52.4% of sides when laying 11-10 just to break even). Here, b = 0.909 (10/11 odds), p = 0.53 and q = 0.47. Putting the numbers into the formula, we get f = ((0.909 * 0.53) – 0.47)/0.909 = 0.012, or 1.2%. This bettor’s ideal bet size is 1.2% of $10,000, or $120. In practical usage, this would mean wagering $110 to win $100.

Let’s take it a step further, and examine a baseball money line bet. If the LA Dodgers are +140, and the bettor is 50% confident that they will win the game, the bettor should risk f = ((1.4 * 0.50) – 0.50)/1.4 = 0.1428 = 14.28% of bankroll, or $1428.

Use of the formula can tell a handicapper when to avoid a bet, too. If the baseball money line bettor in the example above was only 40% confident of a Dodgers win, but was considering the bet anyway because of the odds, a check of the formula reveals f = ((1.4 * 0.40) – 0.60)/1.4 = a negative number, indicating the bet should be avoided.

If Kelly Criterion application reveals a result f that is very close to zero, it suggests that the odds offered are not sufficient to give any significant amount of expected value to the bet, and the bet should probably be avoided.

It should be noted that the Kelly Criterion is volatile. One-third of the time, the system will result in a loss of half the bankroll before it is doubled. Some bettors trade a certain amount of rate of return for less volatility by using a “Half Kelly” system, betting one-half the amount recommended.

Some people bet on all sports. I have never in my life placed a wager on a tennis match, but some people do.

Even if you don’t bet on tennis, but like to watch or play tennis you can win a trip to the US Open at Flushing Meadow.

You can win a three night stay in a 4 star hotel. How do you enter this contest? Its easy. Just place a bet on any tennis match. Every $ you wager on any tennis even up until July 20th increases your chance of winning this trip.

If you already place bets on sports why not try one small bet on tennis to get yourself entered in for this amazing experience. For more details click here.